‘Trump Has Already Created Lots of Chaos’ – The Atlantic

Friedman: What’s the best-case scenario for U.S.-China relations during Trump’s presidency?

Shen: Let’s look at Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton allowed the Taiwanese president, Lee Teng-hui, to visit the U.S. [in 1995]. So what happened? China launched a missile exercise against Taiwan, and the U.S. sent two aircraft carriers into the Taiwan Strait. In Bill Clinton’s second term, he had a more stringent, tough policy on Taiwan. He came to China to deliver the “three no’s,” [which included declarations that] the U.S. does not think Taiwan [should] have statehood, which means he would never call Taiwan’s leader “president,” and the U.S. would not change its “One China” policy.

George W. Bush, in April 2001, after Chinese and U.S. aircraft collided, said the U.S. would do whatever it took to defend Taiwan. That [went] beyond the limits of the Taiwan Relations Act. The next day, his spokesperson clarified that the U.S. position on “One China” had not changed—the president did not mean what he said.

So a future good case would be that Trump would not repeat his bullshit argument and would apologize to China for what he has already mistakenly stated. Or each time when he makes a bullshit statement, his press secretary would come out to say, “The U.S. position on ‘One China’ has not changed.” Now he is not a president. He does not need a [press] secretary to say, “He did not mean what he said.” Every day he tweets to say, “I mean what I said.” Fine. You are not a president. But if you are president, Shen Dingli’s China would cut off the [diplomatic] relationship with the U.S. completely so the U.S. cannot sell $120 billion [worth of] goods to China.

[A breakdown of U.S.-China relations could mean] 2 million U.S. workers lose jobs, no more 3 million Chinese tourists coming to the U.S., each spending $10,000. Not many Chinese students would come, and U.S. universities would close.

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